Document Type

Article

Publication Date

4-19-2022

Publication Title

Cell Rep Med

Keywords

COVID-19, Humans, New England, Public Health, SARS-CoV-2

JAX Source

Cell Rep Med 2022 Apr 19; 3(4):100583

Volume

3

Issue

4

First Page

100583

Last Page

100583

ISSN

2666-3791

PMID

35480627

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xcrm.2022.100583

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant rose to dominance in mid-2021, likely propelled by an estimated 40%-80% increased transmissibility over Alpha. To investigate if this ostensible difference in transmissibility is uniform across populations, we partner with public health programs from all six states in New England in the United States. We compare logistic growth rates during each variant's respective emergence period, finding that Delta emerged 1.37-2.63 times faster than Alpha (range across states). We compute variant-specific effective reproductive numbers, estimating that Delta is 63%-167% more transmissible than Alpha (range across states). Finally, we estimate that Delta infections generate on average 6.2 (95% CI 3.1-10.9) times more viral RNA copies per milliliter than Alpha infections during their respective emergence. Overall, our evidence suggests that Delta's enhanced transmissibility can be attributed to its innate ability to increase infectiousness, but its epidemiological dynamics may vary depending on underlying population attributes and sequencing data availability.

Comments

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

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